Home Sale Fall-Through Statistics 2026: 47 U.S. Metros Ranked
24 Jul 2026A source-led analysis of U.S. pending home-sale cancellations and UK transaction failures, with definitions, rankings and practical ways to reduce preventable risk.
Quick answer: Nearly 40,000 U.S. home-purchase agreements were canceled in January 2026, equal to 13.7% of homes that went under contract that month. That was the highest January cancellation rate in Redfin's records, which begin in 2017. Among 47 large metros with sufficient data, San Antonio had the highest rate at 21.2%; San Francisco had the lowest at 3.5%. In England, the government uses a broader measure and estimates that roughly one in three transactions fails before completion. The U.S. and UK rates are not directly comparable because they cover different markets and transaction stages.
Anyone.com Research, "Home Sale Fall-Through Statistics 2026," updated 24 July 2026. U.S. metro analysis based on Redfin pending-sales data; UK benchmarks from the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government.
-Anyone.com Research
Key findings
The national U.S. cancellation rate was 13.7% in January 2026, up from 13.1% in January 2025.
36 of 47 tracked metros had a higher cancellation rate than a year earlier.
San Antonio recorded the highest rate, at 21.2%, and the largest annual increase, 5.6 percentage points.
The median across the 47 metros was 13.4%. The simple metro average was 13.1%; this is not population-weighted.
The five lowest rates were in San Francisco (3.5%), Nassau County, NY (4.8%), San Jose (5.3%), Milwaukee (7.6%) and Oakland (8.4%).
The UK government says the English conveyancing process takes about 120 days after an offer is accepted, and around one in three transactions fails, costing buyers and sellers an estimated £400 million a year.
Proposed English reforms project that better upfront information and earlier commitment could reduce failures to roughly one in seven. That is a policy projection, not an observed national result.
U.S. home-sale cancellations by metro
The table ranks Redfin's 47 reported metros by the share of January 2026 pending sales that fell out of contract. "Change" is the percentage-point difference from January 2025.
Rank 1 — San Antonio, TX: Jan. 2026 21.2%, Jan. 2025 15.6%, Change +5.6 pp
Rank 2 — Atlanta, GA: Jan. 2026 18.5%, Jan. 2025 17.1%, Change +1.4 pp
Rank 3 — Cleveland, OH: Jan. 2026 17.9%, Jan. 2025 14.9%, Change +3.0 pp
Rank 4 — Riverside, CA: Jan. 2026 17.5%, Jan. 2025 16.4%, Change +1.1 pp
Rank 5 — Jacksonville, FL: Jan. 2026 17.3%, Jan. 2025 16.1%, Change +1.2 pp
Rank 5 — Orlando, FL: Jan. 2026 17.3%, Jan. 2025 17.4%, Change −0.1 pp
Rank 7 — Las Vegas, NV: Jan. 2026 16.8%, Jan. 2025 16.0%, Change +0.8 pp
Rank 8 — Los Angeles, CA: Jan. 2026 16.7%, Jan. 2025 15.0%, Change +1.7 pp
Rank 9 — Houston, TX: Jan. 2026 16.6%, Jan. 2025 14.5%, Change +2.1 pp
Rank 10 — Fort Lauderdale, FL: Jan. 2026 15.8%, Jan. 2025 15.7%, Change +0.1 pp
Rank 11 — Fort Worth, TX: Jan. 2026 15.6%, Jan. 2025 15.3%, Change +0.3 pp
Rank 12 — Detroit, MI: Jan. 2026 15.5%, Jan. 2025 16.2%, Change −0.7 pp
Rank 13 — Dallas, TX: Jan. 2026 15.1%, Jan. 2025 14.3%, Change +0.8 pp
Rank 13 — Denver, CO: Jan. 2026 15.1%, Jan. 2025 14.6%, Change +0.5 pp
Rank 13 — Miami, FL: Jan. 2026 15.1%, Jan. 2025 13.6%, Change +1.5 pp
Rank 13 — Tampa, FL: Jan. 2026 15.1%, Jan. 2025 17.0%, Change −1.9 pp
Rank 17 — Columbus, OH: Jan. 2026 14.9%, Jan. 2025 13.4%, Change +1.5 pp
Rank 18 — Phoenix, AZ: Jan. 2026 14.5%, Jan. 2025 15.2%, Change −0.7 pp
Rank 18 — Virginia Beach, VA: Jan. 2026 14.5%, Jan. 2025 13.1%, Change +1.4 pp
Rank 20 — San Diego, CA: Jan. 2026 13.8%, Jan. 2025 12.6%, Change +1.2 pp
Rank 21 — Portland, OR: Jan. 2026 13.7%, Jan. 2025 13.3%, Change +0.4 pp
Rank 22 — Nashville, TN: Jan. 2026 13.5%, Jan. 2025 11.9%, Change +1.6 pp
Rank 23 — Anaheim, CA: Jan. 2026 13.4%, Jan. 2025 11.4%, Change +2.0 pp
Rank 23 — Indianapolis, IN: Jan. 2026 13.4%, Jan. 2025 12.9%, Change +0.5 pp
Rank 25 — Austin, TX: Jan. 2026 13.3%, Jan. 2025 13.2%, Change +0.1 pp
Rank 25 — Sacramento, CA: Jan. 2026 13.3%, Jan. 2025 13.1%, Change +0.2 pp
Rank 27 — Chicago, IL: Jan. 2026 13.2%, Jan. 2025 14.2%, Change −1.0 pp
Rank 28 — Baltimore, MD: Jan. 2026 12.8%, Jan. 2025 12.2%, Change +0.6 pp
Rank 28 — Pittsburgh, PA: Jan. 2026 12.8%, Jan. 2025 11.9%, Change +0.9 pp
Rank 28 — West Palm Beach, FL: Jan. 2026 12.8%, Jan. 2025 12.0%, Change +0.8 pp
Rank 31 — Newark, NJ: Jan. 2026 12.5%, Jan. 2025 11.5%, Change +1.0 pp
Rank 31 — Warren, MI: Jan. 2026 12.5%, Jan. 2025 10.3%, Change +2.2 pp
Rank 33 — New Brunswick, NJ: Jan. 2026 12.3%, Jan. 2025 10.6%, Change +1.7 pp
Rank 34 — Philadelphia, PA: Jan. 2026 12.0%, Jan. 2025 11.4%, Change +0.6 pp
Rank 35 — Cincinnati, OH: Jan. 2026 11.9%, Jan. 2025 12.2%, Change −0.3 pp
Rank 35 — Washington, DC: Jan. 2026 11.9%, Jan. 2025 11.5%, Change +0.4 pp
Rank 37 — Providence, RI: Jan. 2026 10.8%, Jan. 2025 11.7%, Change −0.9 pp
Rank 38 — Boston, MA: Jan. 2026 10.4%, Jan. 2025 10.5%, Change −0.1 pp
Rank 39 — Seattle, WA: Jan. 2026 10.0%, Jan. 2025 7.8%, Change +2.2 pp
Rank 40 — Minneapolis, MN: Jan. 2026 9.2%, Jan. 2025 10.0%, Change −0.8 pp
Rank 41 — New York, NY: Jan. 2026 8.9%, Jan. 2025 8.6%, Change +0.3 pp
Rank 42 — Montgomery County, PA: Jan. 2026 8.7%, Jan. 2025 8.3%, Change +0.4 pp
Rank 43 — Oakland, CA: Jan. 2026 8.4%, Jan. 2025 6.2%, Change +2.2 pp
Rank 44 — Milwaukee, WI: Jan. 2026 7.6%, Jan. 2025 9.3%, Change −1.7 pp
Rank 45 — San Jose, CA: Jan. 2026 5.3%, Jan. 2025 2.9%, Change +2.4 pp
Rank 46 — Nassau County, NY: Jan. 2026 4.8%, Jan. 2025 6.4%, Change −1.6 pp
Rank 47 — San Francisco, CA: Jan. 2026 3.5%, Jan. 2025 2.8%, Change +0.7 pp
Source: Redfin, "Home-Purchase Cancellations Hit Record High for January," published 24 February 2026. Redfin's table contains 47 metros with sufficient data. Calculations and grouping are by Anyone Research.
Where cancellations were rising fastest
The national increase was 0.6 percentage points, but the local movement was uneven.
San Antonio, TX: Jan. 2026 21.2%, Annual change +5.6 pp
Cleveland, OH: Jan. 2026 17.9%, Annual change +3.0 pp
San Jose, CA: Jan. 2026 5.3%, Annual change +2.4 pp
Oakland, CA: Jan. 2026 8.4%, Annual change +2.2 pp
Seattle, WA: Jan. 2026 10.0%, Annual change +2.2 pp
Warren, MI: Jan. 2026 12.5%, Annual change +2.2 pp
Houston, TX: Jan. 2026 16.6%, Annual change +2.1 pp
Anaheim, CA: Jan. 2026 13.4%, Annual change +2.0 pp
San Jose is a useful warning against reading a percentage-point increase without its base rate. Its cancellation rate rose sharply relative to 2025, but at 5.3% it remained the third-lowest rate in the table. San Antonio combined both a high current level and the largest annual increase.
Tampa moved in the opposite direction, falling 1.9 percentage points to 15.1%. Milwaukee declined 1.7 points to 7.6%, and Nassau County declined 1.6 points to 4.8%.
What does "fall through" mean?
In the Redfin dataset, a cancellation is a U.S. home sale that was pending and then fell out of contract. Redfin expresses the count as a share of overall pending sales and notes that an agreement canceled during January did not necessarily enter contract during January. The series is seasonal, and recent figures may be revised.
In England, "fall-through" commonly refers to an agreed transaction that fails before legal completion. Because an accepted offer is generally not legally binding at the same point as a typical U.S. purchase contract, the English process has a longer window in which a chain can break.
That makes the two headline rates useful within their own markets but not a league table between countries.
Published benchmark — United States: 13.7% in Jan. 2026; England: around one in three
Event counted — United States: Pending sale falls out of contract; England: Agreed transaction fails before completion
Period — United States: One month; England: Government system-wide estimate
Source — United States: Redfin transaction data; England: UK government reform documents
Directly comparable? — United States: No; England: No
England: one in three transactions fails
The UK government's 2026 reform consultation says the process takes an average of 120 days after an offer is accepted, around 60% longer than in 2007. It estimates that approximately one in three transactions fails, costing buyers and sellers £400 million annually.
The proposed reforms include more material information in the listing, standardized digital property data, property logbooks, digital identity checks and earlier legally binding agreements. Government impact documents project that the package could:
reduce the failure rate from about one in three to one in seven
shorten the buyer's process by around four weeks
shorten the seller's process by around two weeks
save a first-time buyer an average of £650
Those numbers describe expected effects if the policy is implemented. They are not yet observed national outcomes. A small HM Land Registry upfront-information pilot reported zero fall-throughs and a seven-week average from pack creation to legal completion, but a pilot cannot establish a national failure rate.
Sources: Home Buying and Selling Reform consultation, Material Information in Property Listings consultation, government reform announcement and HM Land Registry pilot update.
Why home sales fall through
A cancellation rate cannot tell us why an individual deal failed. Common failure points in residential transactions include:
financing changes or a mortgage application that does not complete
an appraisal below the agreed price
inspection findings and unsuccessful renegotiation
title, identity, disclosure or legal-document issues
delays that cause a linked transaction chain to break
a buyer or seller withdrawing within the rights available to them
changing affordability, employment or personal circumstances
The practical lesson is not that every risk can be removed. It is that delays, missing information and fragmented communication create more time and more opportunities for a transaction to fail.
A transaction-certainty checklist
For sellers
Assemble title, ownership, disclosure and property documents before going live.
State known material facts accurately and update them if circumstances change.
Ask buyers for appropriate evidence of funds or finance readiness.
Define deadlines, contingencies and responsibilities in writing.
Keep every participant working from the same current documents and timeline.
Prepare for the operational side of a direct sale with Anyone's guide to selling your house yourself.
For buyers
Secure a finance decision in principle where it is customary, but understand its conditions.
Budget for appraisal, inspection, legal and closing costs.
Make contingency dates realistic.
Review material information early rather than after emotional commitment.
Verify instructions and document changes through a trusted channel.
For both sides
Use one transaction plan with named owners, dates, outstanding items and version-controlled documents. A shared process cannot guarantee completion, but it makes preventable uncertainty visible earlier.
Frequently asked questions
Methodology
Anyone Research transcribed the 47-metro table in Redfin's February 2026 release, verified the January 2026 and January 2025 values and calculated percentage-point changes. Summary counts treat each metro equally; the simple average is not weighted by sales volume. National numbers are Redfin's published national series.
English benchmarks come from June 2026 UK government consultations and announcements. They use a different transaction system and definition, so this article does not combine the U.S. and English figures.
Limitations
January is one month and may not represent the full year.
Redfin notes that recent data may be revised.
Redfin includes only metros with sufficient data in the published table.
Metro and national rates can differ because the national figure is not the simple average of listed metros.
Policy projections are not observed outcomes.
Next review: when Redfin publishes a later national or metro cancellation table, or by 31 October 2026.
Sources
Redfin: Home-Purchase Cancellations Hit Record High for January
Update log
24 July 2026: First edition, using U.S. January 2026 metro data and English reform documents published through 19 June 2026.
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