The $11.2 Trillion Risk Hiding Behind U.S. Home Listings

Quick answer

The headline number is large because the exposure is large. Realtor.com's July 2026 Housing and Climate Risk Report estimates that 23.1% of U.S. homes, representing $11.2 trillion in property value, face severe or extreme risk from wind, flood or wildfire. That is not a forecast of $11.2 trillion in losses. It is the value of residential property sitting in the highest modeled risk bands. The transaction problem is that much of the resulting cost remains invisible until a buyer requests an insurance quote, a lender reviews the policy, an HOA produces its master coverage or a flood requirement appears late in due diligence.

Insurance is therefore becoming part of the asset, not merely paperwork attached to it. Federal Reserve data show that 63% of insured homeowners said their premiums had risen more than expected in recent years. Federal financial regulators reported that average homeowners-insurance payments rose 61% over five years. High-risk ZIP codes were paying 82% more for coverage than the lowest-risk ZIP codes in the U.S. Treasury's nationwide analysis, while nonrenewal rates were about 80% higher. A fixed-rate mortgage may fix principal and interest, but it no longer fixes the cost of owning the home.

The central finding: The next property marketplace cannot rank homes by list price alone. Buyers need to know whether a home is insurable, financeable and sustainable to own before they fall in love with it.

Key findings

The data at a glance

Latest national evidence available as of 7 August 2026. Periods and definitions differ; see Methodology and caveats.

Sources: Realtor.com; U.S. Treasury Federal Insurance Office; FSOC; Federal Reserve; National Flood Insurance Program.

1. What the $11.2 trillion number means, and what it does not

Anyone.com combined property-level data and automated valuation models with First Street's Flood, Fire and Wind Factor scores. A home was categorized as facing severe or extreme risk when its relevant score was 7 or higher on First Street's ten-point scale. On that basis, 23.1% of U.S. homes fell into a severe or extreme risk category for at least one of the three hazards. Their combined estimated value was $11.2 trillion.

The number describes exposure, not expected loss. A home can be exposed to a severe hazard and never suffer a total loss. The modeled score does not say that a specific event will occur this year, and it is not an insurance quote, appraisal or guarantee. Exposure value is useful because it shows how much housing wealth, mortgage collateral and transaction activity sits in markets where hazard-related costs may be consequential.

It is also not a scorecard that can be compared casually with last year's version. Realtor.com notes that the 2026 report incorporates methodological updates, so the aggregate figures are not directly comparable with its 2025 climate-risk report. This article therefore treats the 2026 figures as a current cross-sectional estimate rather than a year-over-year growth rate.

Use the number correctly: $11.2 trillion is the value of property exposed to the highest modeled risk bands. It is not a forecast that $11.2 trillion will be destroyed, written down or become uninsurable.

The disaster-cost backdrop

The exposure sits against a costly recent history. NOAA counted 403 U.S. weather and climate disasters causing at least $1 billion in damage from 1980 through 2024, with total costs of approximately $2.915 trillion. The five years from 2020 through 2024 produced 115 billion-dollar disasters—an average of 23 per year. In 2024 alone, 27 events caused an estimated $182.7 billion in damage.

Tropical cyclones have generated more than $1.5 trillion in damage since 1980, averaging about $23 billion per event. Hurricane Helene was estimated at $78.7 billion and Hurricane Milton at $34.3 billion. These are economy-wide disaster costs, not measures of insured residential loss, but they explain why insurers, reinsurers, lenders and homeowners are revisiting how risk is priced and transferred.

2. A fixed-rate mortgage no longer means a fixed housing cost

The traditional home-search funnel is organized around list price, down payment and mortgage rate. Yet a monthly housing bill can change for reasons that have nothing to do with the mortgage coupon. Homeowners insurance can reprice at renewal. Property taxes can rise after reassessment. An HOA can raise dues or issue a special assessment when its master insurance becomes more expensive. A lender can require flood insurance or force-placed coverage if the borrower's policy lapses.

FSOC reported that average homeowners-insurance payments rose 14% in 2024 and 61% over five years. Average property-tax payments rose 5% in 2024 and 22% over the same five-year period. National average premiums increased 10.4% in 2024 alone. For a buyer stretching to qualify, those variable costs can erase the apparent certainty of a fixed-rate loan.

Freddie Mac's loan-level study shows the same pattern from another angle. For the borrowers in its data, the average annual premium rose from $1,081 in 2018 to $1,522 in 2023—a 40.8% increase in five years, including 10.8% in 2023 alone. The average burden rose from 1.49% to 1.64% of annual income. Very-low-income borrowers spent an average 3.1% of income on homeowners insurance, compared with 1.1% among high-income borrowers.

The affordability equation: Purchase price + financing + insurance + taxes + HOA obligations + expected resilience costs = the real cost of ownership. Search experiences that show only the first two are increasingly incomplete.

Risk is priced unevenly

Insurance pricing is local, and the same premium can represent very different value. Freddie Mac found effective rates above $8 per $1,000 of insured value in Louisiana, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and Mississippi, while rates were below $2.50 per $1,000 in California, Washington, Nevada, Oregon, Utah and the District of Columbia. A low dollar premium does not necessarily mean low hazard exposure; state regulation, policy form, deductibles, insurer strategy and coverage limits all affect the quoted price.

That is why a marketplace cannot responsibly convert a climate score into a universal insurance estimate. The better approach is to place modeled risk, actual quotes, policy terms, deductibles, exclusions and lender requirements into one decision flow. A model helps a buyer know what to investigate. An insurer determines whether it will accept the risk and on what terms.

3. The insurance market is signaling both higher prices and lower availability

The U.S. Treasury's Federal Insurance Office assembled one of the most comprehensive national datasets yet: more than 246 million homeowners-insurance policy records from over 330 insurers, covering 2018 through 2022 at ZIP-code level. Average premiums increased 8.7% faster than inflation. Households in the top 20% of ZIP codes by climate-related risk paid an average $2,321, 82% more than households in the lowest-risk 20%.

Availability moved in the same direction. Nonrenewal rates in the highest-risk ZIP codes were approximately 80% higher than in the lowest-risk ZIP codes. Claim severity averaged about $24,000 in the highest-risk areas versus roughly $19,000 in the lowest-risk areas. The FIO analysis excluded flood and earthquake from its climate-related peril definition, which means it does not capture the entire hazard-cost picture.

The insurance problem is not caused by climate alone. Regulators and market participants also point to rebuilding costs, labor and materials, reinsurance pricing, litigation, fraud, regulation, insurer capital strategy and local construction quality. The appropriate conclusion is not that every premium increase is a direct climate signal. It is that hazard exposure now interacts with a stressed insurance system, and buyers need to see the output of that system before committing to a property.

Nonrenewal and the growth of last-resort markets

FSOC reported that the national average nonrenewal rate rose from 1.08% in 2018 to 1.58% in 2022. A half-point increase looks small until it is viewed against millions of policies: the relative increase was about 46%. Homeowners who lose standard coverage may be forced into a state residual market, commonly described as a FAIR plan or insurer of last resort.

Residential policies in these residual markets grew 77% from 2019 through 2024 to 3.2 million, concentrated mainly in California, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina and Texas, with meaningful growth in states including Alabama, Oregon and Washington. Last-resort plans provide a critical safety net, but they can cost more, cover less or require supplemental policies. A listing can remain visually attractive while its path to acceptable coverage narrows.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau warns that if required coverage lapses, a mortgage servicer can buy force-placed insurance. It may cost up to twice as much as the borrower's own policy and often protects only the lender's financial interest. Insurance is therefore not optional transaction administration for most financed purchases; it is a condition of the loan and a continuing condition of ownership.

4. The household affordability problem is already visible

The Federal Reserve's 2025 Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking found that 6% of homeowners had no homeowners insurance. The share was 3% among owners with a mortgage and 13% among those who owned their homes free and clear. Lenders usually require coverage, so the higher uninsured rate among mortgage-free owners reveals what can happen when the contractual requirement disappears.

Affordability is the dominant reason. Among uninsured homeowners, 43% said they could not afford coverage, 16% said it was not worth the cost, 15% said they could cover a loss themselves and 8% said no insurer would cover the property. Roughly two in ten homeowners with household income below $50,000 lacked coverage, as did three in ten homeowners whose only asset was their home.

Coverage strain is also present among insured households. Twenty percent wanted more coverage but could not afford it, and 14% said they struggled to pay premiums. Among homeowners earning under $50,000, 33% wanted more coverage but could not afford it and nearly 30% struggled with premiums. Across all insured homeowners, 63% said costs had increased more than expected in recent years.

The geography of underinsurance matters. The uninsured share was 11% in both the East South Central and West South Central Census divisions, versus 3% in New England. Homeowners in low- and moderate-income neighborhoods were more than twice as likely to be uninsured as those in high-income neighborhoods—12% versus 5%.

The equity risk: The households least able to absorb an uninsured loss are often the same households most likely to have no coverage, insufficient coverage or difficulty paying premiums.

5. Flood risk exposes the gap between maps, models and coverage

Flood is the clearest example of why visible risk and insured risk are not the same. Standard homeowners insurance generally does not cover flooding. Buyers typically need a separate National Flood Insurance Program policy or private flood coverage. Lenders require flood insurance for many federally backed mortgages in designated Special Flood Hazard Areas, but the absence of a requirement is not evidence that the property has no flood risk.

Realtor.com estimates that more than 6% of U.S. homes, representing approximately $3.4 trillion in property value, face severe or extreme flood risk. It also estimates that around 2 million homes with nearly $1 trillion in value have significant flood exposure while sitting outside official flood zones. FEMA maps serve important regulatory purposes, but property-level models can surface risk that the mapped mandatory-purchase boundary does not capture.

At the same time, National Flood Insurance Program policies in force fell from approximately 3.62 million in May 2025 to 3.45 million in May 2026—a 4.5% drop of about 170,000 policies. Texas recorded a 7.8% decline, followed by Oklahoma at 6.9%, Idaho and Mississippi at 6.6%, and Alabama at 6.5%. A decline in policy count does not prove that every household dropped needed coverage, but it does show that the formal coverage base can contract while physical exposure remains.

Risk Rating 2.0 and the price of actuarial alignment

The Government Accountability Office's review of FEMA's Risk Rating 2.0 explains the premium transition. In December 2022, the median annual NFIP premium was $689, while the median full-risk premium was $1,288—a difference of $599, or about 87%. Roughly two-thirds of policies required increases to reach full-risk pricing, and 9% were expected eventually to rise by more than 300%. Most annual increases are capped at 18%, so the adjustment unfolds over time.

GAO estimated that 95% of then-current policies would reach full-risk premiums by 2037 and that the difference between collected and full-risk premiums represented approximately $27 billion. In 45 states, the median full-risk premium exceeded 1% of median household income; in ten states it was at least 2%. The figures use a 2022 policy baseline, but they remain useful for understanding why flood-insurance affordability and accurate disclosure are long-duration transaction issues rather than one-year anomalies.

6. The hidden climate cost inside HOA fees

Climate and insurance costs do not reach every buyer through an individual homeowners policy. In condos, townhomes and planned communities, a portion can arrive through the homeowners association. The association's master policy covers shared structures or common areas; when its premium rises, deductible expands or coverage becomes difficult to secure, the cost can move into regular dues, special assessments or reduced reserves.

Across Realtor.com listings with a nonzero reported HOA fee from June 2025 through May 2026, homes facing severe or extreme climate risk had a median fee of $192 per month, compared with $125 for lower-risk homes. The $67 monthly difference is $804 per year. For condos and townhomes, the gap was larger: $548 versus $350 per month, a difference of $198 or $2,376 per year. Single-family homes showed a smaller gap of $74 versus $55.

These are associations, not controlled experiments. High-risk and lower-risk homes differ in location, amenities, age, property type and services. The data do not prove that climate risk alone causes the entire fee difference. But the pattern matters because master-policy costs are a known pressure point, and the widest gaps occur in places where insurance or hazard exposure can be significant.

Selected state and metro HOA gaps

Median monthly HOA among listings reporting a nonzero fee, June 2025–May 2026.

Source: Anyone.com 2026 Housing and Climate Risk research. Values are descriptive and do not isolate insurance from other HOA cost drivers.

The master-policy transaction problem

The master policy matters to more than the HOA budget. Lenders and project-eligibility systems may require evidence that a condominium association maintains acceptable property coverage. If documents arrive late, limits are inadequate or exclusions conflict with underwriting rules, the buyer may be unable to obtain the intended mortgage even when the individual unit is affordable. NAR has highlighted delays obtaining HOA master-policy documentation as a transaction bottleneck, particularly where closing deadlines are tight.

A buyer evaluating a condo therefore needs at least four insurance views: the building's master policy, the unit owner's HO-6 policy, applicable flood or earthquake coverage and the association's deductible and reserve position. Showing only the monthly HOA fee strips away the terms that can determine whether the unit is financeable and whether owners may face a special assessment after a loss.

7. Buyers do not simply walk away from climate risk

A common assumption is that better risk information will cause demand to disappear from high-risk markets. The listing data suggest something more complicated. People buy homes for jobs, schools, family, climate, water access, views, urban convenience and lifestyle. Risk is one input among many, and desirable amenities can be correlated with the same geography that creates exposure.

In Santa Clara County, California, severe- or extreme-risk homes were priced at 78% of lower-risk homes on a price-per-square-foot basis but received 48% more listing views. In Los Angeles County, high-risk homes were priced at 75% and received 23% more views. Orange County showed a 9% price discount and 14% more views; Riverside County showed an 11% discount and 10% more views.

Other markets showed an amenity premium rather than a discount. High-risk homes in Anne Arundel County, Maryland, were priced 44% higher per square foot and still received 7% more views. In Llano County, Texas, high-risk homes were priced at roughly twice the lower-risk level and drew 10% more views. Flathead County, Montana, showed a 55% price premium and 16% more views. Waterfront, scenic or supply-constrained locations can remain desirable despite risk.

Selected buyer-attention patterns

Relationship of severe/extreme-risk listings to lower-risk listings in the same county.

Source: Realtor.com 2026 Housing and Climate Risk Report. Views measure shopper attention, not completed purchases.

A natural experiment after the Los Angeles fires

The Los Angeles wildfire period illustrates how quickly salience can change without permanently reversing demand. Realtor.com's ratio of views for high-risk versus lower-risk homes fell from 1.21 in December 2024 to 1.11 in January 2025, then recovered to 1.20 in February and 1.31 in March. Buyers noticed the event, but attention returned rapidly.

That does not mean buyers were indifferent. Listing views are not offers, insurance approvals or closings. The result does mean that simply expecting the market to self-correct through avoidance is unrealistic. Buyers need information and transaction tools that let them evaluate trade-offs while they are still comparing homes, not after emotional and financial commitment has formed.

8. How climate risk turns into transaction risk

A home can be desirable, affordable on the mortgage calculator and still fail to close because the insurance and risk work started too late. The failure is usually not one dramatic event. It is a sequence of small coordination gaps: no early quote, missing roof information, an inspection scheduled after the underwriting window, unclear flood status, a master policy requested too late or a lender condition discovered days before closing.

Search: The buyer sees price, bedrooms and estimated mortgage payment but not hazard exposure, likely coverage types or HOA insurance obligations. The shortlist is built on incomplete monthly-cost information.

Offer: The contract is signed before the buyer has confirmed that standard coverage is available on acceptable terms. An insurance contingency may be missing, too short or poorly coordinated with inspections.

Underwriting: The insurer asks about roof age, electrical systems, prior claims, vegetation, distance to fire services, occupancy or mitigation. Information sits across the seller, agent, inspector and public records.

Lending: The lender reviews replacement-cost coverage, deductibles, flood requirements and—where applicable—the association's master policy. A policy that exists can still fail lender standards.

Closing: A late premium, nonrenewal concern, force-placed warning or master-policy exception changes the monthly payment or financing. The buyer must accept a worse outcome, renegotiate, change lenders or walk away.

Ownership: Premiums, deductibles, taxes and HOA assessments continue to change after closing. Without a durable transaction record, the homeowner repeats the search for documents at every renewal or refinance.

The orchestration problem: Climate data alone does not close a home, and an insurance quote alone does not explain the risk. The market needs a workflow that connects discovery, coverage, financing, inspections, documents, deadlines and regulated professionals.

Serious delinquencies show where housing stress can compound

Insurance is only one part of household stress, but geographic patterns are worth monitoring. Realtor.com reported serious mortgage-delinquency rates of 1.7% in Louisiana and 1.4% in Mississippi in September 2025, compared with 0.8% nationally. Florida and Texas rose from around 0.5% in early 2023 to at least 1.0% by September 2025.

These figures do not establish that insurance caused the delinquencies. Household income, employment, loan characteristics, taxes and disaster disruption all matter. They do show why rapidly changing non-mortgage costs deserve a place in affordability analysis: where budgets are already stressed, an insurance or HOA shock can become the marginal cost that destabilizes ownership.

9. The disclosure gap starts at the listing

For most consumers, a property portal is the first serious decision environment. It determines which homes are seen, compared, saved and shared. Yet climate and insurance information often appears only after the buyer has moved from browsing to negotiation. In April 2026, members of Congress wrote to Realtor.com arguing that buyers need clearer, earlier access to climate-risk information and noting that listing platforms are often the first point of contact.

The policy debate should not distract from the product problem. Risk data is difficult. Models disagree, maps have different purposes, hazard is not the same as loss and insurance prices are property- and applicant-specific. But uncertainty is not a reason to show nothing. It is a reason to show the source, date, definition and limitations, then give the buyer a path to verify the information with qualified professionals.

What good disclosure looks like

10. What buyers should verify before making an offer

11. What sellers and agents can do before listing

The seller cannot guarantee insurability, but can reduce preventable uncertainty. A listing package that contains current, verifiable property information gives insurers, buyers and lenders more time to assess the home. This is particularly valuable in markets where roof age, defensible space, electrical panels, water-loss history or association coverage can change underwriting.

12. What the property marketplace must become

The prevailing portal model optimizes discovery and lead generation. Climate and insurance pressure exposes the limit of that design. A lead has little value if the home cannot be insured to the lender's standard, if the real monthly cost is discovered after the offer, or if a missing master-policy document breaks the closing schedule.

The next model should treat insurability as a transaction workstream that begins at search. That does not mean predicting a premium or replacing licensed advice. It means creating a structured path from risk signal to verified information, quote, contingency, document, approval and audit trail.

A six-stage climate-ready transaction

Framework developed by Anyone Research. Individual requirements vary by property, insurer, lender, association and jurisdiction.

13. Where Anyone.com fits

Anyone.com is being built as a truly international property transaction marketplace, with daily new listings across more than 26 countries. The premise is that finding a property and completing a transaction should not be separate products. Search, verified professionals, documents, communication, milestones and closing coordination belong in one shared journey.

Climate and insurance checks are exactly the kind of hidden friction that belongs in that transaction layer. A marketplace does not need to become an insurer, lender, inspector or climate modeler. It needs to let buyers, sellers and their regulated professionals surface the right question early, exchange the right evidence and see which dependency is blocking the next step.

The product direction is clear. Climate-risk information should be visible during discovery with the source and limitations attached. Insurance and HOA costs should feed the affordability view. Offers should carry the right contingencies and deadlines. Quotes, inspections, master policies and lender evidence should remain connected to the property record. Every participant should work from the same timeline.

That is not a promise that technology can eliminate physical risk or guarantee coverage. It is a commitment to eliminate preventable information and coordination failures. Buyers will continue to choose coastal, forested, drought-prone, storm-exposed and otherwise complex markets. The winning marketplace will help them make that choice with a complete view of cost, coverage and execution.

Anyone's position: A home should not be considered transaction-ready because it has photos and a price. It is transaction-ready when the buyer can understand the risk, verify the cost, secure the coverage and coordinate the professionals required to close.

14. Frequently asked questions

15. Methodology and caveats

Sources

Primary and authoritative sources used in this report. All links accessed 7 August 2026.

About Anyone.com

Anyone.com is an international property marketplace designed to connect discovery with the full transaction. Buyers and sellers can find property and coordinate verified professionals, communication, documents and milestones through one shared journey. The platform receives daily new listings across more than 26 countries.