The Strongest Buyer's Market on Record. So Why Does Buying a Home Still Feel Impossible?

Quick answer

By one widely followed measure, the U.S. has entered the strongest buyer's market in more than a decade.

Redfin estimates there were 57.9% more home sellers than buyers in August 2026, the largest gap in its records going back to 2013. At the same time, 59.5% of homes sold below their original asking price and sellers gave concessions in 44.7% of transactions tracked by Redfin buyers' agents.

That sounds like the market buyers have been waiting for.

There is one problem. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.03% on 24 September, according to Freddie Mac. Home prices are also still above last year's level nationally.

So the 2026 housing market has produced a strange split: buyers who can afford to participate have more choice and negotiating power, while millions of would-be buyers are still priced out.

For sellers, the message is almost the reverse. The old strategy of listing high and waiting for buyers to chase the property is becoming much harder to defend. Pricing, flexibility and the quality of the buyer now matter more.

Key findings

There is something unusual happening in housing.

Buyers have more negotiating power than they have had in years.

There are more homes to choose from. Price cuts are common. Builders are offering incentives. Sellers are helping with closing costs and repairs. Deals are taking longer and buyers are walking away more often.

Yet ask someone trying to buy their first home whether housing feels cheap.

It doesn't.

Mortgage rates are above 7%. Home values remain far above where they were before the pandemic in many markets. Insurance, taxes, HOA costs and maintenance have become more expensive too.

America has somehow arrived at a market where buyers have a lot more leverage over sellers, but a large group of buyers cannot afford to use it.

For households that can buy, that contradiction is creating a very different transaction than the one buyers faced only a few years ago.

For sellers, it is changing the rules even faster.

The number that explains the 2026 housing market

Redfin's August estimate puts the imbalance in unusually simple terms.

There were approximately 1.53 million home sellers in the U.S. market.

There were about 972,300 buyers.

That left 57.9% more sellers than buyers, up from 52.1% a month earlier. Redfin says it is the widest gap in its records going back to 2013.

Redfin's buyer-versus-seller analysis estimates buyers using its proprietary data on the typical time from a buyer's first tour through closing together with MLS active-listing and pending-sale data. Seller counts are based on active listings. The estimates are seasonally adjusted and can be revised.

So this is not a literal census of every buyer in America.

It is still a useful way to understand the direction of the market.

And the direction is clear.

More homeowners are trying to sell while demand has barely moved.

In August the estimated number of sellers increased 3.9% from July. The estimated number of buyers increased just 0.1%.

That difference is where negotiating power comes from.

A buyer who has one suitable home to choose from is under pressure.

A buyer who has ten is not.

The biggest buyer's markets are dramatically out of balance

The national number hides just how extreme the split has become in parts of the country.

According to Redfin:

In those markets there were more than two sellers competing for every buyer.

Nearly three-quarters of the large U.S. housing markets Redfin analysed qualified as buyer's markets.

But this is also where national housing advice becomes dangerous.

Nassau County in New York had 28% fewer sellers than buyers. Newark had 21% fewer. Montgomery County in Pennsylvania had 20% fewer. Milwaukee had 18% fewer and San Francisco had about 12% fewer.

Those were seller's markets by Redfin's definition.

A buyer in Nashville and a buyer in Nassau County are technically shopping in the same national housing market.

Their actual experience can be almost opposite.

More homes are finally coming back onto the market

For several years, one of the biggest stories in real estate was the home that never got listed.

Millions of owners refinanced or bought when mortgage rates were exceptionally low. Someone paying 2.8% on a mortgage had a powerful financial reason not to sell that home and replace the loan with one costing 6% or 7%.

That became known as the mortgage lock-in effect.

It reduced supply and made existing homeowners strangely valuable simply because of the debt attached to their property.

Life eventually gets in the way.

People change jobs. Families grow. Couples separate. Children move out. Owners retire. Properties get inherited. Some homeowners simply decide they have waited long enough.

Redfin counted 1,534,918 active listings in August, the highest level in its data since 2020. New listings rose 2.6% month over month to their highest level in more than four years.

Redfin's August housing supply report shows the same pattern from the listing side: supply is growing while sales are basically flat.

The National Association of Realtors uses a different dataset and methodology, but it points in the same direction.

NAR reported 1.62 million existing homes for sale in August, up 5.9% from one year earlier and the first time its inventory measure had exceeded 1.6 million since November 2019.

That represented 4.9 months of supply.

The important part is not which website has the biggest number.

The datasets are showing a market with more choice.

Three in five homes now sell below their original asking price

This may be the number sellers should pay the most attention to.

In August, 59.5% of U.S. homes sold for less than their original asking price, according to Redfin.

That does not mean American home prices have fallen 59.5%.

It means the majority of completed transactions ended below where the seller originally tried to start.

The local differences are enormous.

In West Palm Beach, 85% of homes sold below their original asking price.

Miami was 83%.

Austin and San Antonio were both 82%.

Dallas was 79%.

Then look at San Francisco.

Only 30% of homes sold below their original asking price.

This is the difference between searching for a house and understanding a market.

The number displayed at the top of the property page is the seller's asking price.

It is not the outcome.

One in five listings is already cutting its price

Realtor.com's August 2026 housing trends report found that 20.4% of active listings had received a price cut.

Denver was 31.4%.

Portland was 30.5%.

Salt Lake City was 30.3%.

Austin was 27.6%.

Realtor.com also reported that the national median listing price fell 1.3% from the previous year.

These numbers does not tell us that a national crash is underway.

They tell us sellers are increasingly having to meet buyers closer to where buyers actually are.

Buyers are negotiating things that do not appear in the sale price

Redfin found that sellers gave concessions in 44.7% of U.S. sales in the three months ending August.

The Redfin concession analysis counts help with items such as repairs, closing costs or mortgage-rate buydowns. It does not count a normal price reduction as a concession.

15.8% of sales included both a concession and a price cut.

Some buyers are not simply negotiating the price down.

They are negotiating the entire economics of the purchase.

That can include:

For decades, property portals have trained buyers to compare homes almost entirely through list price.

The actual deal can be much more complicated.

In some cities, a seller concession is almost normal

Redfin reported concessions in:

Then compare those numbers with New York at 5.7% and San Jose at only 4.2%.

The market is becoming more buyer-friendly nationally while becoming more fragmented locally.

Both things are true at once.

So why does buying still feel impossible?

Because bargaining power is not the same thing as affordability.

Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the average U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.03% on 24 September 2026.

Two weeks earlier it was 6.76%.

A mortgage rate changes what a buyer can afford even if the home itself does not change at all.

A home can become cheaper while the payment becomes more expensive.

This is the central contradiction of the 2026 market.

Buyers have more leverage against sellers.

Financing costs are eating part of that advantage.

A 7% mortgage changes what a discount is worth

Suppose a buyer is looking at a $500,000 home and finances $400,000 with a 30-year fixed mortgage.

At 6%, principal and interest is roughly $2,398 per month.

At 7%, it is roughly $2,661.

That is about $263 more every month, before taxes, insurance, HOA costs or maintenance.

Over a year that is more than $3,100.

So a seller agreeing to a $10,000 price reduction does not automatically make up for a one percentage point increase in mortgage rates.

The relevant number is the cost of ownership, not only the purchase price.

Prices are still rising nationally

NAR reported a median existing-home sale price of $429,100 in August, up 1.6% from one year earlier.

Redfin, using a different dataset and methodology, reported a median sale price of $398,596, up 2.2%.

At the same time, Realtor.com reported a median listing price of $424,500, down 1.3%.

Those figures are not directly comparable, but together they show that sellers have lost bargaining power faster than home values have fallen.

Many owners have substantial equity and low existing mortgage rates.

If an owner cannot get a price they like, they may simply decide not to sell.

There is more sellers in the market now, but that does not mean they are all distressed sellers.

The real reset is happening between list price and closing

Buyers waiting for a dramatic national price crash may be looking at the wrong part of the transaction.

The reset is already visible between the asking price and the signed contract.

A property portal might show:

$625,000

What the listing page usually does not show is that the seller may accept $605,000, contribute $8,000 toward closing costs and repair an inspection item before completion.

The advertised price is becoming a smaller part of the real transaction.

New construction is changing the negotiation too

Buyers should not only compare one existing home with another.

In some markets, the biggest competitor to an individual seller is a homebuilder.

Realtor.com's analysis of August Census data reported a median new-home sale price of $393,700, 5.8% lower than one year earlier, with 8.5 months of new-home supply.

Builders can also move value around through:

For an individual seller trying to compete with a nearby development, this matters.

A lower price is not always the best concession

Imagine a seller is willing to give up $10,000 of value to get a deal done.

They could reduce the purchase price.

They could contribute toward eligible closing costs.

They could fund repairs.

They could help with a rate buydown if the loan structure permits it.

From the buyer's perspective, the economic value can be very different.

There is no universal answer.

The negotiation should start with the buyer's actual constraint, not the ritual of knocking a percentage off the asking price.

Buyers are walking away more often

Redfin's August data showed that 13.9% of pending sales fell out of contract.

A failed transaction can happen for many reasons.

Financing can collapse.

An appraisal can come in low.

Inspection problems can surface.

A buyer's circumstances can change.

But choice matters too.

When a buyer knows there are many other suitable homes available, discovering a serious problem makes walking away easier.

Receiving an offer is not the finish line for a seller.

The quality of that buyer matters.

The highest offer can be the wrong offer

Suppose a seller receives two offers.

Buyer A offers $610,000 but has uncertain financing and several aggressive conditions.

Buyer B offers $600,000, has verified financing and a straightforward path to closing.

The $610,000 offer looks better on the first line.

It may not be the better transaction.

When cancellations are elevated, price and probability of closing should be considered together.

Buyers should stop asking only "how low can I go?"

A buyer's market can encourage bad negotiation.

A well-priced home in a desirable neighbourhood can still attract competition.

Instead of asking only how much below asking to offer, buyers should investigate:

Negotiation works better when the buyer understands what the other side values.

Do not mistake negotiating power for permission to buy a bad property

A softer market makes stale listings look tempting.

Sometimes they are opportunities.

Sometimes they have been sitting for 120 days for a reason.

A buyer should understand why.

Is it simply overpriced?

Is there structural damage?

An expensive HOA assessment?

Flood exposure?

An old roof that is difficult to insure?

A title problem?

A tenant issue?

A large discount cannot repair every mistake.

Sellers need to forget what the neighbour got in 2022

One of the hardest parts of selling is that the owner already has a number in their head.

A neighbour sold for $800,000.

An online estimate says $825,000.

A similar home was listed for $850,000.

None of those facts automatically determine what a buyer will pay today.

Housing markets can change faster than seller expectations.

A price from two years ago can become a very expensive anchor.

The first weeks on the market matter more when buyers have options

When a property is first published, saved-search alerts go out and buyers notice it.

If those buyers all decide the home is overpriced, reducing it six or eight weeks later does not completely reset the launch.

The property is now familiar.

People have already skipped it once.

The launch price should be based on the competition the home faces today.

A price cut is not necessarily losing

Seller A lists at $750,000, attracts little activity and eventually reduces to $710,000.

Seller B lists at $715,000, attracts several serious buyers and closes at $718,000.

Seller A had the higher asking price.

Seller B had the better outcome.

The goal is not to defend the first number typed into the listing form.

It is to create the best realistic net result.

The fall market may make buyers even more powerful

Housing normally slows into autumn and winter.

Realtor.com's August pending-home-sales analysis showed contract signings 4.7% below the prior year.

At the same time the 30-year mortgage average rose from 6.76% on 10 September to 7.03% on 24 September.

Higher borrowing costs can push additional buyers to the sidelines.

That creates one of the strangest possibilities in housing:

The market can become better for buyers and harder for buyers at the same time.

Better negotiating conditions.

Worse financing conditions.

Buyers may have more leverage than they realise

Imagine a buyer looking at a $700,000 listing.

The asking price does not tell them whether:

Consumers can see thousands of properties but still know surprisingly little about the negotiating context around each one.

Search became digital years ago.

Transaction intelligence is only now catching up.

Sellers have the same information problem in reverse

A homeowner needs more than a valuation estimate.

They need to understand demand around the property.

How many serious buyers are searching in this location?

How many can afford the likely price?

How many competing homes are available?

Are buyers saving the property but not booking viewings?

Are viewings happening without offers?

Sellers should not have to rely on vague statements such as "there is interest."

They should be able to see the signals.

This is where the buyer's market becomes a data problem

The phrase "buyer's market" makes the market sound binary.

It isn't.

A city can have a seller surplus while one neighbourhood stays hot.

A condo and a detached house can behave differently in the same postcode.

The useful question is not:

"Is it a buyer's market?"

It is:

"What is the balance of power for this specific property, at this price, for this buyer and this seller?"

That is the question that actually matters.

How Anyone.com plays into this

Anyone.com is building around the idea that buying and selling a home should not stop at property search.

A buyer should be able to move from discovering a property into viewing, communication, an offer, negotiation, documents and the path toward closing without losing the context of the transaction.

A seller should be able to understand their property, choose how they want to sell, manage buyer interest and compare offers in one place.

That becomes more useful in a market like 2026 because the headline offer price is no longer enough.

A seller comparing offers should be able to see what they actually keep, how the offers differ and which buyer is in a position to proceed.

A buyer should be able to make an offer based on property and market context rather than treating the asking price as a fixed truth.

Anyone also supports direct selling, while still allowing professional help where the buyer or seller wants it.

The point is not to make every transaction adversarial.

It is to give both sides enough information to make the transaction clearer.

What buyers should do differently right now

The most valuable thing buyers have regained is not the ability to make insulting offers.

It is the ability to say no.

What sellers should do differently right now

The strongest competitor a seller faces in 2026 may not be the home down the road.

It may be the buyer deciding to do nothing.

A buyer's market should not mean buyers against sellers

The buyer wants the right home at a cost they can carry.

The seller wants a good financial outcome and a high probability that the transaction completes.

Those goals can overlap.

A seller helping with closing costs might unlock financing without requiring a much larger price reduction.

A buyer agreeing to the seller's preferred completion date may be worth money to the seller.

A verified buyer can give the seller confidence to accept slightly less.

Better negotiation does not always move value from one side to the other.

Sometimes it creates a transaction that otherwise would not happen.

So is this really a buyer's market?

By Redfin's supply-demand measure, yes.

Its estimated seller surplus is the largest in records going back to 2013.

Inventory is higher.

Price reductions are common.

Concessions are common.

Most homes are selling below their original asking price.

But that description needs one enormous qualification.

It is a buyer's market for people who can afford to buy.

Housing costs remain high.

Mortgage rates are above 7%.

Prices are still rising nationally in major sale-price datasets.

A market can become easier to negotiate without becoming easy to afford.

That may be the most important housing story of 2026.

The strange opportunity inside the 2026 housing market

For much of the last few years, buyers complained there was nothing to buy.

Now there is more to buy, but fewer households can afford to buy it.

Sellers outnumber buyers by almost 60% in Redfin's estimate.

Three in five homes sell below their original asking price.

Almost half of buyers in Redfin's concession dataset receive some help from the seller.

NAR's inventory measure is at its highest level since 2019.

And the average 30-year mortgage rate is above 7%.

The result is a housing market with two realities running beside each other.

For buyers who have been waiting for negotiating power, it has arrived.

For sellers waiting for the frenzy of 2021 to return, it largely hasn't.

And for both sides, the advantage increasingly belongs to whoever understands the actual transaction better before signing it.

Not just the asking price.

Not just the mortgage rate.

The whole deal.

Frequently asked questions

Methodology and caveats

Sources